Serie A: Napoli and Lazio Get it On Again

Napoli vs Lazio

First plays fifth in the Serie A match of the weekend on Sunday when Napoli host Lazio in a mouthwatering top-flight clash. These two giants of the Italian game met in the Coppa Italia on Thursday, and it was Marco Baroni’s Lazio who won that bout 3-1, thanks to a hat-trick from Tijjani Noslin. So that means no Coppa this year for Napoli manager Antonio Conte, but I suspect he won’t be too bothered and my Serie A 2024 predictions won’t be swayed by that result either. Both teams made sweeping changes to their starting lineup, and their first 11s will look very different at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium.    

Conte seems like he’s never been away, winning the Scudetto three times with Juventus and once with Inter Milan, and now he’s leading the charge at Napoli, who are currently top of the pile. But it’s tight at the summit with I Nerazzurri looking strong and Atalanta are a threat as well. Baroni’s Lazio slipped a little off the pace when they lost 3-1 away to Parma last week, while Napoli won 1-0 in Torino to keep hold of top spot, and the odds say Sunday will be another day of celebration for I Partenopei.

 

Talking Points

Conte looking for more bite in attack

The Napoli boss rested a whole host of players for the Coppa clash on Thursday, including top scorers Romelu Lukaku and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, as well as the impressive Scott McTominay. They’ll all be back on the pitch on Sunday, and Conte expects a response, and he is also looking for a sharper cutting edge after watching his team record back-to-back 1-0 wins.

Napoli’s match with Roma two weeks ago was a tight affair decided by a Lukaku goal early in the second half, but Conte’s men only had two shots on target. Things improved against Torino with six on target but still just a McTominay goal to show for their efforts. These wins were preceded by a 1-1 draw with Inter and a 3-0 loss to Atalanta, so the manager is understandably keen to see more goals from his front men.

Lukaku has five goals and four assists while Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has five goals and three assists, and McTominay’s winner against Torino was his third of the campaign. With Matteo Politano and Giovanni Simeone also in the attacking group, there is no lack of quality, and now it is time for them to deliver. 

 

Lazio aiming to get back on track

The Coppa Italia victory was a boost to Lazio, but it was a contest between two second strings, and this upcoming league match takes priority. I Biancocelesti put together a superb set of Serie A 2024 results and have been riding high in the Europa League, with a seven-match unbeaten run in all competitions. But a home goalless draw against Ludogorets and an away 3-1 defeat to Parma have stopped their momentum over their last fortnight.

Baroni says the results were worse than his team’s performances after they dominated their Europa clash and then were unlucky against Parma when Nicolo Rovello had a goal disallowed. “We played a good match,” he insisted. “In the first half, the refereeing incident made the team a bit nervous but we continued to create chances. We kept our heads down, which is an important aspect.”      

Argentine striker Taty Castellanos, signed in the summer of 2023, has six goals while midfield ace Mattia Zaccagni has five. Castellanos was rested for the Coppa match alongside Nuno Tavares and Matteo Guendouzi, and they will all lineup against Napoli on Sunday, while Luca Pellegrini and Adam Marusic are in a race to be fit. 

 

History

With 24 wins to 18 Napoli have edged the head-to-heads against I Biancocelesti over the past three decades, though last season Lazio won in Naples 2-1 and then drew in Rome 0-0. But today’s SBOTOP tips predict a turnaround back in the direction of I Partenopei. In terms of recent form before Thursday’s Coppa runout, both teams had four wins from the last six, with a draw and a defeat each. Napoli’s home record is six wins and one defeat, while Lazio have won three and lost four on the road.

 

Betting Tip

So I don’t expect a draw at odds of 3.12, nor do I think Lazio will win at a price of 3.74. Napoli have been very strong at home, and I believe Conte’s rested stars will put on a show for their fans. Whether the hosts will score more goals remains to be seen and, if they are to pull out another 1-0 win, then a bet on Under 2.25 at odds of 1.99 is an alternative idea.

   

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