Manchester City vs Real Madrid
So, for the fifth successive season, Real Madrid and Manchester City are locking horns in the knockout stages of Europe’s elite competition.
Champions League 2026 highlights anyone?
Well yes, but there is an argument for saying that, following last week’s first leg, this tie is all but over.
Talking Points
Going into the opening contest in Madrid, that seemed unlikely as Pep Guardiola’s City were many people’s favourites against hosts managed by a rookie in Alvaro Arbeloa and missing the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham.
How wrong we all were as Federico Valverde netted a superb first half hat-trick to leave City on the brink of an exit at the hands of Los Blancos for the third year in a row.
It all means City now face an uphill task.
Are they good enough to beat Madrid’s class of 2026? Of course, they are.
Are they capable of overturning a three goal deficit just to draw level? Just about, against a Real side who are far from full-strength right now.
Yet they will need to score early on to generate belief.
If they do, we may well see another instalment of some of the classics we’ve witnessed over the past five years (see below).
History
Even before last season’s last-16 clash, which Real won 6-3 on aggregate thanks to some Mbappe magic, these sides had been involved in some key clashes in the past decade.
None more so of course than in the semi-finals four seasons ago.
Then they took part in a first leg which will live long in the memory of neutrals as the two sides produced the joint-highest scoring ever Champions League semi-final.
Somehow, though, the drama was not over.
The following week, I can still remember leaving the hotel restaurant where I was enjoying a few days’ holiday with City 1-0 up in the second leg in Madrid and 5-3 ahead on aggregate with minutes remaining.
By the time I got back to the hotel room and checked the score, I could not believe what I was seeing.
The remarkable turnaround saw Rodrygo score twice – in the 90th minute and then in stoppage time – before Karim Benzema’s extra-time penalty won the day and sealed a 6-5 aggregate victory.
Real went onto be crowned champions of Europe a few weeks later.
City gained revenge convincingly at the same stage a year later with a 5-1 aggregate win and finally realised their European dream a month later.
Then there was the quarter-finals in 2024 when the sides shared six goals in another epic in Spain before a 1-1 draw in the second leg – Rodrygo and Kevin de Bruyne the scorers. Real went onto triumph 5-4 on spot-kicks after more than 220 compelling minutes.
They met in the 2016 semi-finals too, drawing 0-0 in Manchester before Fernando’s own goal at the Santiago Bernabéu took Real to the final, where they beat city rivals Atletico on penalties.
Guardiola’s men avenged that defeat in 2020, with 2-1 success away – a night when Sergio Ramos received the 26th red card of his career and City came of age in Europe – and then at home when City took advantage of Real defensive errors.
They also met in the group phase a mere three months ago when young Nico O’Reilly and a Erling Haaland penalty won the game for City after Rodrygo had put Real ahead.
Until the regular clashes in recent seasons, the sides’ only other competitive fixtures came in the 2012/13 group stage when Madrid twice came from behind to win 3-2 in Spain. City led twice through Edin Džeko (68) and Aleksandar Kolarov (85) but Madrid responded through Marcelo (76) and Benzema (87) before Cristiano Ronaldo snatched a 90th minute victory.
The return in Manchester ended one-apiece with Sergio Agüero’s penalty cancelling out Benzema’s 10th minute opener.
Those four points helped José Mourinho’s Madrid finish second in Group D, behind Borussia Dortmund; City, then managed by Roberto Mancini, ended bottom with three points having not won a game.
Betting Tip
The SBOTOP 2026 Champions League betting odds actually make City overwhelming favourites – and I can see why.
Put simply, they have to attack (although not chaotically) and are more than capable of troubling their opponents as shown by both their victory in the Bernabeu in the autumn and the first 20 minutes of last week’s first leg.
There are some attractive bets to consider, including a re-run of their meeting in Manchester last season with Correct Score 2-3 paying out @ 48.00.
If City can repeat their 2-1 triumph from December, which obviously would not be enough to turn the tie around, then you can get odds @ 7.50.
And if you expect Real Madrid to complete a home and away double, then options include 1X2 @ 5.30 and Asian Handicap +0.75 @ 2.38.
City are strongly tipped, by comparison, when you consider 1X2 @ 1.46 and Asian Handicap -1.25 @ 2.08.
The draw is on offer @ 4.35 and that would appeal to many, as would total goal 2-3 @ 2.19 and 4-6 @ 2.49.
However, I am going to go for City to win the match but not have quite enough to claw back the tie.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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